Helmut
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Vienna, Austria,
2013-09-18 18:27
(4655 d 14:58 ago)

Posting: # 11519
Views: 5,932
 

 Planing ABEL based on a pilot [Power / Sample Size]

Dear all,

I stumbled across an interesting issue. Let’s say we plan for a replicate pilot study (RTR|TRT) in order to design the pivotal in the same design. I want to use the upper CL of the estimated CV (40%) by CVCL(CV=0.4, df=2*n-3, side="upper").

pilot n  CLupper
   16    0.525
   20    0.506
   24    0.494
   36    0.472

Sure. Now let’s plan the pivotal (T/R 90%, 80% power) for EMA’s method by sampleN.scABEL(theta0=0.9, CV=CV, design="2x2x3").

  CV   pivotal n  power   total n
0.525      44     0.8154    60
0.506      42     0.8021    62
0.494      42     0.8046    66
0.472      42     0.8046    78

In some cases we are already crossing the 50% cap. The larger pilot size does not pay off.
Let’s play the game for a CV of 30% (only 50% chance of scaling). If you prefer one-liners, use: sampleN.scABEL(theta0=0.9, CV=as.numeric(CVCL(CV=0.3, df=2*n-3, side="upper")[2]), design="2x2x3"). I got:

pilot n  pivotal n  power   total n
   16        46     0.8008    62
   20        48     0.8058    68
   24        48     0.8007    72
   36        50     0.8046    86

Amazing. Small is beautiful?

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d_labes
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Berlin, Germany,
2013-09-23 11:24
(4650 d 22:01 ago)

@ Helmut
Posting: # 11542
Views: 4,710
 

 Planing ABEL based on a pilot

Dear Helmut,

❝ Amazing. Small is beautiful?


For me your finding is not so astonishing.
Remember one of the features of the scaled ABE method: In its pure form the power is independent of the intra-subject variability, at least if we assume a true ratio T/R of ~1. Therefore the FDA had discussed about a fixed sample size (24 or 36) for such studies.

The simplification of the scaled ABEL method and the additionally regulatory constraints like cap on widening the acceptance ranges or the PE constraints of course change that behaviour. But as your numbers show not to that extent that you observe a benefit for larger pilots.

I would nevertheless not state "Small is beautiful". This would only be the case if you take only the variability from the pilot. The other side of the moon is the PE and its value may be very misleading in small pilots, especially if we talk HVD.

Regards,

Detlew
Helmut
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Vienna, Austria,
2013-10-26 19:37
(4617 d 13:49 ago)

@ d_labes
Posting: # 11777
Views: 4,796
 

 Planing ABEL based on a pilot

Dear Detlew & all,

❝ I would nevertheless not state "Small is beautiful".


Correct. I think I was getting the right answer to a wrong question. The CV’s CI helps us to be protected against surprises. In the conventional ABE setting that would mean working with the upper CL, but if scaling comes into play I would say the lower CL is important (lower CV, smaller widening of the AR, higher sample size). My revised example based on CVCL(CV=0.4, df=2*n-3, side="lower"):

pilot n  CLlower
   16    0.326
   20    0.333
   24    0.338
   36    0.348

And sampleN.scABEL(theta0=0.9, CV=CV, design="2x2x3").

  CV   pivotal n  power   total n
0.326      52     0.8082    68
0.333      52     0.8098    72
0.338      52     0.8113    78
0.348      50     0.8028    86

Again smaller pilot sample sizes result in smaller total ones, but your argument about a more precise estimate of the T/R-ratio in larger pilot studies is still valid.

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