Surprise? [Two-Stage / GS Designs]

posted by d_labes  – Berlin, Germany, 2012-09-05 14:57 (4674 d 07:40 ago) – Posting: # 9150
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Dear Helmut, dear GSD!

❝ ❝ Let’s just start with the usual 1-stage design with a full replicate model and consider EMA scaling. If I simulate as above, I get an empirical type I error of 5.1%, 8.5% 25.4%, 36.9%, 47.1% and 49.8% for CVs of 10%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 50% and 70% respectively. (The sample size that I used in each case was powered at 80%).


❝ Terrible – and surprising.


This is not a surprise if you think twice.

Compare GSD's values with figure 4 from the paper of the two Laszlos
Tothfalusi, Endrenyi
"Limits for the scaled average bioequivalence of highly variable drugs and drug products"
Pharm. Res. Vol.20, 382-389 (2003)
[image]
Open symbols are the scaled ABE simulations.

Despite the fact that they have simulated 2x2 cross-over studies and used sigma0 = 0.2 the qualitative behaviour resembles the numbers given by GSD.

To have an empirical alpha IMHO it is indeed necessary to simulate studies at an GMR which is identical with the widened acceptance limits dependent on the CV used for the simulation.
This is irrespective of the fact that we use the sample CV for widening the BE limits in the evaluation of each study. In simulating with a certain CV we know it and therefore we know also the inequivalence margins that would apply for the population.
We act the same way in case of normal ABE simulating with an GMR at the BE limit 1.25 (or 0.8) but use the sample point estimate in evaluation of each simulated study.

Regards,

Detlew

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