C/D for EMA? Good luck! [Two-Stage / GS Designs]

posted by Helmut Homepage – Vienna, Austria, 2012-09-01 17:09 (4677 d 21:47 ago) – Posting: # 9140
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Hi GSD!

❝ […] I realized that 10^6 is a must when you go for Potvin’s 2-stage.


Yes – 1/√N hits.*

❝ ❝ Which one of Potvin’s methods are you aiming at?


❝ Methods C/D.


Are you aware that the acceptability of C/D for EMA is limited (pun intended)? If you want to deal with ABEL, I reckon only Method B might be acceptable – though some member states even mistrust the validity of the power evaluation in the intermediate analysis at all. Right now C/D is only acceptable (without major discussions) in the US and Canada. Since HPFB does not allow scaling this leaves the FDA with an easier model (without the 50% cap – but the discontinuity at 30%).

❝ But if any of your sample CVs exceeds 30%, the acceptance limits are widened. They are no longer fixed at 0.8 and 1.25. When you enter your simulation with a starting CV of say 35%, most of your random samples will have an acceptance limit in the neighborhood of [0.7723, 1.2948]. In this case, when you still center it on ln(0.8), the simulated “type I error” will be huge.


Sounds like chicken-and-egg to me. :-D The ratio and CV in the sims are independent – but the scaled acceptance range depends on the actual CV in every simulated study…



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